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Welcome to The Forecast! Polling was slow over the last week due to the holiday, so this may not be QUITE as exciting - but what IS exciting is all of the changes made to cmelectionpredictions.com!
Our State pages have been revamped - you can see all the races in your state at a glance.
The new District Finder is live - see how competitive your US House district is, or look at any district that interests you! You can search by state or representative name.
The new pages for individual districts show much more information, including the current representative, current win odds, history of win odds in that district, and the district map! A quick note: not all district maps will reflect recent redistricting.
Anywhere on the site, you can click on a race to get more details, like the ones above! For example, if you’re on the House page looking at Toss-Up districts, you can click a card to head to the District page for that race. Or if you’re looking at the Gubernatorial page, click a card to head to that state’s page and view win odds and history for that race.
Enjoy looking around! Now, onto the Forecast.
There are no shifts in US Senate races this week.
The predicted seat count remains 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and 1 Toss-Up. Control of the chamber remains Likely R, with Republicans at an 80.12% chance of holding their majority.
In the House of Representatives, just a single seat shifting this week - and just barely!
Shifts Toward the Democrats
FL-17 (R-Steube): Solid R → Likely R
FL-17 is in southwest Florida, and includes the cities of North Port, Punta Gorda, Venice, Wauchula, Arcadia, and Okeechobee. This district is still expected to go pretty heavily for Republicans - it was won by incumbent Rep. Greg Steube in 2024 by ~27.8%.
The expected seat count sits at the same number as last week - 224 Democrats, 194 Republicans, and 17 Toss-Ups. Control of the chamber remains Likely D, with Democrats at an 83.46% chance of flipping the chamber.
The closest race this week is once again NC-01, home of Rep. Don Davis (D).
There were no changes in ratings this week. Click the button above to see current predictions.
That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!
Happy New Year!