Welcome to The Forecast, and Happy Spring! Sorry for the long delay between newsletters - I’ve been feverishly working on building up infrastructure for Election Nights, along with other new features!

One new feature you may find helpful is the Ratings Changelog! On the Home page, as well as individual pages for House, Senate and Governor, you’ll see a log of everything that’s changed in the past 7 days (or, if you’d like to see a wider range, the last 30 days). This can help you see how things are changing over time!

Now, without further ado, let’s jump in!

There are a few changes in the US Senate:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Florida (R-Moody): Likely R → Lean R
Michigan (D-OPEN): Lean D → Likely D
Montana (R-OPEN): Likely R → Lean D

Shifts Toward the Republicans
New Hampshire (D-OPEN): Solid D → Likely D

I want to put in a quick disclaimer before proceeding to the full analysis: the shift in Montana is somewhat of a mirage. With incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines retiring, the only poll in the state (reflecting a strong Republican margin) has been removed from the polling database. This sends Montana back to relying on historical electoral performances, where Democrats have put up strong performances in recent years. While I expect the state of Montana will likely send another Republican to the Senate, I never fiddle with the Model’s math to reflect my perception. I just wanted to make that clear!

Florida, Michigan, and New Hampshire, on the other hand, are genuine shifts - reflecting recent polling and the continued leftward drift in the national environment. Michigan firming up for Democrats is a positive sign for them here - Republicans have a strong frontrunner in their primary, a candidate who has won tough races in Michigan before. This is similar to New Hampshire, which we’re seeing shift toward the Republicans - a member of the Sununu Republican political dynasty is hoping for a triumphant return by winning the state’s open seat - but an incumbent Democratic US Representative is putting up a strong fight to keep this seat for the Democrats.

In Florida, this shift is indicative of a difficult environment for Republicans - even in states that have increasingly shifted towards the party over the last decade. Recent hypothetical polls in the US Senate race have shown only moderate leads for incumbent Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, numbers that are a far cry from the nearly 13% margin of victory achieved by Republican Sen. Rick Scott in 2024. I personally don’t yet believe that Florida is in serious contention - that picture won’t become more clear until we know which candidate the Democrats choose.

Overall, Republicans still have the edge in the US Senate, with a 55.4% chance of holding the chamber, a Toss-Up (their odds would be significantly boosted if Montana were still showing in their column). The Model currently expects Democrats to win 50 seats, Republicans to win 49 seats, and one seat (Ohio) is a Toss-Up.

We’ve also seen several changes on the US House side of the Capitol:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
CA-27 (D-Whitesides): Likely D → Solid D
FL-28 (R-Giménez): Likely R → Lean R
IL-13 (D-Budzinski): Likely D → Solid D
NJ-04 (R-Smith): Solid R → Likely R
NJ-11 (D-OPEN): Likely D → Solid D
NM-01 (D-Stansbury): Likely D → Solid D
NY-04 (D-Gillen): Lean D → Likely D
NC-07 (R-Rouzer): Lean R → Toss-Up
OH-10 (R-Turner): Lean R → Toss-Up
PA-17 (D-Deluzio): Likely D → Solid D
TX-15 (R-De La Cruz): Lean R → Toss-Up
TX-23 (R-OPEN): Lean R → Toss-Up
VA-07 (D-Vindman): Lean D → Likely D
VA-10 (D-Subramanyam): Likely D → Solid D

Shifts Toward the Republicans
MI-10 (R-OPEN): Lean D → Toss-Up
PA-01 (R-Fitzpatrick): Likely D → Toss-Up

This heaping number of changes, largely in the Democrats’ favor, reflects really one thing: the national environment has continued to shift leftward. Internally, the Model believes the electorate will vote ~4.7% more Democratic than normal, setting up a very positive situation for Democrats (at all levels). The question is - how well does this hold, and how much can Democrats capitalize on it?

Democrats currently have a 90.7% chance of flipping the House - a rating of Likely D. This doesn't mean that Republicans have NO chance of winning…but I absolutely wouldn’t put a single dime of my own money on that bet. Taking absolutely ALL of this into account, if Republicans won EVERY SINGLE SEAT the Model thinks is in their corner, AND every single Toss-Up seat, they would win 212 seats, six seats short of the 218 needed to form a majority. Democrats already win outright in that scenario. However, if Democrats did the same thing, they would win a very healthy 250 seats. Now a warning here: Democrats, don’t get your hopes up TOO high - the last time an election resulted in either party having 250+ seats was 2008, when Democrats won a whopping 257 seats (it’s also interesting to note that they flipped EIGHT US Senate seats that night). The reason I say not to get your hopes up is that we’ve become significantly more polarized since then, so I think the odds of something like that happening are pretty low - but Democrats DO have the clear advantage at this point, and weirder things have happened!

The Model currently believes Democrats will win 223 seats, Republicans will win 185, and there are 27 Toss-Up seats. The closest seat right now is IA-01 (R-Miller-Meeks).

Yay, you made it to the gubernatorial section! Here’s what’s changed:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Nevada (R-Lombardo): Lean R → Toss-Up
South Carolina (R-OPEN): Likely R → Lean R

Shifts Toward the Republicans
New Hampshire (R-Ayotte): Lean R → Likely R

I’ll get South Carolina out of the way first - this is reflecting the more Democratic-friendly national environment - we still haven’t seen any statewide polls here.

In Nevada and New Hampshire, there are almost two equal and opposite things going on here. Both states are looking at a first-term incumbent Republican governor. Both states tend to be more friendly to Democrats in Congress. But, Nevada polling shows a tight race for Gov. Lombardo, while New Hampshire polling shows Gov. Ayotte in mid-to-high single digits. So what’s going on here?

Nevada is much less friendly to Republicans. Their legislature is largely Democratic, and they last elected a Democratic governor in 2018. Gov. Lombardo ran a very tight race to unseat the incumbent in 2022, winning by ~1.5%.

New Hampshire, on the other hand, last elected a Democratic governor in 2014, and their legislature is largely Republican. Gov. Ayotte won her first term in 2024, winning by ~9.5%.

I think we’ll see quite a bit of fluctuation in these races, especially once the Democrats decide who their candidates are here - these will be ones to watch!

That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!