Table of Contents
Welcome to The Forecast!
It’s a late one tonight - I was waiting for there to be a call in the Virginia redistricting referendum so I could include the new districts. Now, it’s important to note: the Virginia Supreme Court still has to rule on the legality of the referendum. However, as of right now, the referendum is considered passed and the state constitution amended, so I’ve added them to the Model.
So let’s dive in!
There are three changes in the US Senate this week, all stemming from new polling:
Shifts Toward the Republicans
Ohio (R-Husted): Toss-Up → Lean R
Let’s walk through each of these.
First up, in Georgia, incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has seen a number of polls showing the election sitting fairly strongly in his column. If the election were held today, the Model estimates his margin would likely be around D+7%, give or take a few points. This is a strong enough estimate to drive the state more aggressively into his column. However, it’s important to note: Republicans still don’t have a clear favorite in their primary, so support for their candidate could solidify a bit, but it’s looking more and more difficult for Republicans to flip this seat.
Next up, a surprise - Iowa. The first statewide polls were released today for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. Democrats need to win at least one, if not several, decently Republican seats to flip control of the Senate this year, and with new polling showing a slight edge for several Democratic candidates over the favored Republican nominee, Iowa may jump up the list of targets. The Model currently estimates the margin would likely be around R+1%, give or take a few points. That’s why things are so competitive - you take a few points from that margin, and suddenly Democrats are in the lead. This will be one to watch as Democrats choose their nominee this summer.
Finally, Ohio. Here, we saw a poll come out showing a moderate lead for incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted. This is another one of the decently Republican seats Democrats are targeting - they have a star recruit in former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. This new poll tilted the Model just over the edge to rating it Lean R. The expected margin is somewhere around R+2%, so Democrats are likely to continue investing heavily in this race.
Overall, this puts the odds of a Senate majority neck-and-neck: Democrats at 49.4%, Republicans at 50.6%. However, and I’ll probably be noting this caveat every newsletter until we get some polling out of the state: Montana is currently rated as Lean D based on historical data. It is my personal opinion that it’s likely to go to the Republicans. However, I never touch the data in the Model to adjust it to my expectations.
With that said, Democrats are expected to win 50 seats, Republicans at 49, and 1 seat is considered a Toss-Up.
There’s quite a few changes here, several of which are being driven by the passage of the referendum in Virginia.
Shifts Toward the Democrats
MI-10 (R-OPEN): Toss-Up → Lean D
VA-01 (multiple): Toss-Up → Likely D
VA-05 (R-McGuire): Lean R → Likely D
VA-06 (R-Cline): Likely R → Lean D
Shifts Toward the Republicans
IL-13 (D-Budzinski): Solid D → Likely D
NJ-04 (R-Smith): Likely R → Solid R
NM-01 (D-Stansbury): Solid D → Likely D
NY-04 (D-Gillen): Likely D → Lean D
NC-07 (R-Rouzer): Toss-Up → Lean R
OH-10 (R-Turner): Toss-Up → Lean R
The math here is continuing to improve for Democrats. The gerrymandering wars, at least at this point, are basically a draw. Republicans in Florida are still weighing whether to redistrict, and to what extent, so the map could still change. However, at this point, the path to a majority for Republicans is getting harder to see. In fact, if you use the Path to Majority tool (which has now been better optimized for mobile), not only would Republicans need to win every Toss-Up seat, they would now need to win 10 seats that lean toward the Democrats, leaving Democrats with quite a cushion.
The way things stand right now, Democrats have a 91.8% chance of flipping the US House - a Likely D rating that is getting extremely close to the 92% odds required to flip the rating to Solid D. They are now expected to win 227 seats, while Republicans now sit at 185, with 23 Toss-Up seats.
If you’re a Republican, you have some ground you could make up with redistricting in Florida, but even then, the math is starting to look difficult.
We’ve also got three changes to talk about in the gubernatorial realm!
Shifts Toward the Republicans
Ohio (R-OPEN): Toss-Up → Lean R
These states all ALSO got polling for their gubernatorial races.
In Georgia, the favored Democratic candidate polled well against several Republican choices. In fact, the Model expects that, if the election were today, she would likely see a margin of around D+3%, give or take a few points. Republicans are still very competitive here, but these polls, in conjunction with the potential for strong Democratic coattails with Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) at the top of the ticket, show an increasingly strong opportunity for Democrats to snag the Georgia governorship. This may also impact the Georgia Legislature, though Republicans have drawn favorable districts for themselves that will prove difficult to flip for Democrats.
In Iowa, a very strong poll came out for the favored Democratic candidate over the favored Republican candidate. So strong, in fact, that the Model believes if the election were held today, the Democrat would likely see a margin of around D+5%. Personally, I believe the race will be closer than that, but if we see more polling with stronger leads for the Democrat, my mind could certainly change! This, in conjunction with a competitive US Senate race, and several competitive US House races, could also impact the Iowa Legislature. Republicans likely have a lock on the State Senate due to the staggered election cycle. However, the State House is up for grabs, though Republicans are still favored. A note: districts are drawn by a non-partisan state agency in Iowa; legislators play an indirect role in redistricting.
Finally, in Ohio - similar to the US Senate race, a poll showed a moderate lead for the favored Republican over the favored Democrat. The Model currently believes the Republican would see a margin of around R+4%. The Ohio Legislature is already controlled by Republicans, and if these numbers hold, there isn’t much of a risk of them losing control.
All three of these seats will likely be competitive in November - an exciting prospect for states that haven’t elected Democrats to the Office of the Governor for quite some time!
That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!