Overview

Welcome to The Forecast! There’s quite a few changes this week, and some deeper analysis! I’ve also expanded the social media presence of CM Election Predictions - links are available at the bottom of the page. Please be sure to follow for content on US Elections and how I predict them!

The Senate Forecast

View Current Senate Predictions

We have a whopping THREE changes in Senate ratings this week:

Shifts Toward the Republicans
Colorado (D-Hickenlooper): Solid D→ Likely D
North Carolina (OPEN): Likely D → Lean D - FLIP FROM R
Ohio (R-Husted): Toss-Up → Lean R

A lot of these changes are driven by a slight dip in the national Generic Ballot polling for Democrats - they haven’t lost a ton of ground on average, but Republicans have started making up some ground, narrowing the margin. In Ohio, some positive polling for incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted raised his odds of re-election.

The races to watch from this list are North Carolina and Ohio. Both seats are currently held by Republicans, and are seats that are likely to be heavily targeted by Democrats in 2026. North Carolina is currently the best opportunity for Democrats to flip a seat, with the party at a 79.79% chance of doing so. Right now, the only other flip the Model expects is in Maine, where Republican Senator Susan Collins has not yet officially announced whether she will seek re-election.

In order to flip control of the Senate, Democrats will need to win all of the seats they currently hold AND flip four seats. The best odds for two more state flips after Maine and North Carolina, at least at this moment, are Montana (R-Daines) and Ohio. Due to limited statewide polling, the strong odds for Montana may be a bit of a blue mirage - Democratic incumbent Senator Jon Tester lost re-election in 2024, and incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines, who has announced his bid for re-election, won by ~10% when he was re-elected in 2020, defeating the incumbent Democratic Governor of Montana, Steve Bullock. That’s all to say that, when it’s all said and done, and we start getting some polling out of Montana, I expect the state will shift toward the Republicans.

So what state is the next closest opportunity to flip (after Ohio)? Well, that would be the state of Texas. Right now, there’s interesting primaries brewing on both sides. For the Democrats, incumbent Representative Jasmine Crockett of TX-30 and incumbent State Representative James Talarico of District 50 are the frontrunners. In this primary, Rep. Crockett currently has a slight edge in the polling. For the Republicans, it’s kind of a three-way race between incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who is seeking re-election, incumbent Representative Wesley Hunt of TX-38, and the incumbent Attorney General of Texas, Ken Paxton. I expect the Republican primary will head to a run-off to determine the nominee, though recently polling doesn’t entirely make clear which two candidates would advance to that Republican runoff. Regardless, the general election is currently rated Lean R, but what happens in these primaries, scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026, may have a significant impact on where this race moves.

Ultimately, the Senate ratings currently sit at 49 Democrats and 50 Republicans, with a single Toss-Up (Montana). The odds of a majority favor the Republicans right now, who have an 82.49% chance of holding the chamber. This means the Senate is rated Likely R.

The House Forecast

View Current House Predictions

Below are the shifts in the Model since the last Forecast:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
NJ-02 (R-Van Drew): Lean R → Toss-Up

Shifts Toward the Republicans
AZ-06 (R-Ciscomani): Lean D → Toss-Up
AR-02 (R-Hill): Lean R → Likely R
CA-07 (D-Matsui): Solid D → Likely D
CA-42 (D-Garcia): Solid D → Likely D
CA-45 (D-Tran): Likely D → Lean D
IL-11 (D-Foster): Solid D → Likely D
MI-03 (D-Scholten): Likely D → Lean D
NY-01 (R-LaLota): Toss-Up → Lean R
NY-24 (R-Tenney): Likely R → Solid R
VA-02 (R-Kiggans): Lean D → Toss-Up
VA-06 (R-Cline): Likely R → Solid R
WI-06 (R-Grothman): Lean R → Likely R

The races really to pay attention to here are the highlighted ones - these are races that are hovering around or in Toss-Up territory. While momentum is currently with the Republicans, at this point, the races they are pulling into Toss-Up territory from favoring the Democrats (or the races they’re pulling from Toss-Up territory back into their column) are seats they currently hold - winning those seats makes it easier for them to hold their small majority, but it doesn’t do anything to bolster it. Meanwhile, the sole Democratic shift is in NJ-02, currently held by Republican Jeff Van Drew. That would be a flip for them, and would make it easier for them to take a majority of their own.

Every time I send out this list, a number of seats are listed. They often include shifts around the edges, moving from “Solid” to “Likely”, or vice versa. But what does any of that actually mean? I’ve made a short video explaining just that. You can what that video here. Once you’ve finished that, head on over to the website and take a look at the list of Toss-Up or Lean races to get an idea of what’s currently competitive!

Speaking of competitive races, this week’s most competitive race is IA-03. I’ve already talked more in-depth about the Des Moines-anchored seat in southwest Iowa, so I’ll keep it brief this time: incumbent Republican Zach Nunn won the district by ~3.9% in 2024, with the Republican nominee for president, Donald Trump, winning by a similar margin. The race is currently rated a Toss-Up, with Democrats having a 51.10% chance of flipping the seat. Incumbent Republican Rep. Zach Nunn has filed to run for re-election.

The House ratings currently sit at 220 Democrats and 195 Republicans, with 20 Toss-Ups. The odds of a majority favor the Democrats right now, who have an 81.11% chance of flipping control of the chamber. This means the House is rated Likely D.