Welcome to The Forecast!

Tonight, there was a Special Election for House district TN-07. CM Election Predictions called the race for Republican Matt Van Epps at 9:25 PM Eastern. The rating for the race heading into Election Night was Lean R.

In other news, the new CM Election Predictions website has launched! Please check it out here. You can look at every race in every state, and see the odds for each party to win those races. There’s also a fantastic new tool that gives you a visual idea of what the Path to a Majority looks like for each party in the House and Senate.

Now, onto the Forecast!

There are no changes this week in the Senate. The chamber remains divided, with 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and two Toss-Ups. Republicans hold the advantage with a 78.46% chance of holding the Senate - they only need 50 seats to maintain a majority because they hold the Vice Presidency. The rating for the chamber is Lean R.

The redistricting saga continues, yet we chug along! Below are updates due to new polling only - the Supreme Court has not yet given their final decision on Texas redistricting, so I’m continuing to use the districts passed in 2022.

Shifts Toward the Democrats
IN-05 (R-Spartz): Likely R → Lean R
LA-06 (D-Fields): Likely D → Solid D
OH-09 (D-Kaptur): Lean R → Toss-Up
PA-16 (R-Kelly): Solid R → Likely R

Democrats see a slight uptick in their modeled margin - they remain at 226 seats, Republicans drop from 193 seats to 192 seats, with 17 Toss-Up seats. This is the widest margin Democrats have held since the Forecast started back in August. The overall odds of a Democratic House majority currently sit at 86.19%, a rating of Likely D. But with nearly a year left to go, a lot can change!

The closest race in the country at the moment remains NC-01, home to Democratic Representative Don Davis. He has a 50.26% change of holding his seat.

Just a single change to ratings for gubernatorial races this week:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Iowa (OPEN): Likely R → Lean R

There have been a FEW more statewide polls for potential gubernatorial matchups, but none of them impacted overall ratings this week.

That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!