Welcome to The Forecast! Below are the most recent changes. Happy Holidays!

There are two shifts in the US Senate predictions:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Colorado (D-Hickenlooper): Likely D → Solid D
North Carolina (R-OPEN): Lean D → Likely D FLIP

This doesn’t particularly change much compared to last week, but Democrats will be happy to see strengthening odds in one of their best flip opportunities for next year: North Carolina. The seat is currently held by Republican Thom Tillis, who has chosen to retire at the end of his current term. Sen. Tillis was re-elected in 2020, winning by ~1.7%.

The predicted seat count remains 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and 1 Toss-Up seat. Control of the chamber remains Likely R, with Republicans at an 80.17% chance of holding their majority.

We’ve got quite a few changes this week in the House of Representatives predictions! Check them out below:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
AZ-06 (R-Ciscomani): Toss-Up → Lean D FLIP
AR-02 (R-Hill): Likely R → Lean R
CA-07 (D-Matsui): Likely D → Solid D
CA-22 (R-Valadao): Toss-Up → Lean D FLIP
CA-42 (D-Garcia): Likely D → Solid D
CA-45 (D-Tran): Lean D → Likely D
FL-08 (R-Haridopolos): Solid R → Likely R
ID-02 (R-Simpson): Solid R → Likely R
IL-11 (D-Foster): Likely D → Solid D
MI-03 (D-Scholten): Lean D → Likely D
MO-04 (R-Alford): Solid R → Likely R
NY-01 (R-LaLota): Lean R → Toss-Up
NY-24 (R-Tenney): Solid R → Likely R
NC-08 (R-Harris): Likely R → Lean R
OH-01 (D-Landsman): Toss-Up → Lean D
VA-02 (R-Kiggans): Toss-Up → Lean D FLIP
VA-06 (R-Cline): Solid R → Likely R
WI-06 (R-Grothman): Likely R → Lean R

Shifts Toward the Republicans
TN-05 (R-Ogles): Lean R → Likely R

Compared to last week, Democrats seeing a rebound here - the predicted seat count now sits at 224 Democrats, 194 Republicans and 17 Toss-Up seats. Control of the chamber sits at Likely D, with Democrats at an 83.45% chance of flipping control of the chamber.

The closest race this week is NC-01, currently held by Democratic Rep. Don Davis. He currently has a 49.74% chance of holding his seat.

Finally, there are once again no changes to gubernatorial predictions this week. Click the button above to view current predictions.

That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!