Welcome to The Forecast! The biggest news this week is in the House of Representatives, following the US Supreme Court giving the final nod of approval to new Congressional districts in Texas.

There have been no rating changes in individual races, but the chamber has shifted to Likely R - Republicans currently have an 80.75% chance of holding their majority.

The biggest change today has to do with Texas - the US Supreme Court has given its final order, allowing Texas to utilize their new Congressional map in 2026. That, along with continued polling, led to the following updates:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
PA-10 (R-Perry): Toss-Up → Lean D
TX-04 (R-Fallon): Solid R → Likely R
TX-05 (R-Gooden): Solid R → Likely R
TX-06 (R-Ellzey): Solid R → Likely R
TX-08 (OPEN): Solid R → Likely R
TX-14 (R-Weber): Solid R → Likely R
TX-17 (R-Sessions): Solid R → Likely R
TX-25 (R-Williams): Solid R → Likely R
TX-27 (R-Cloud): Solid R → Likely R
TX-36 (R-Babin): Solid R → Likely R

Shifts Toward the Republicans
CA-22 (R-Valadao): Lean D → Toss-Up
FL-08 (R-Haridopolos): Likely R → Solid R
FL-17 (R-Steube): Likely R → Solid R
ID-02 (R-Simpson): Likely R → Solid R
IN-05 (R-Spartz): Lean R → Likely R
LA-06 (D-Fields): Solid D → Likely D
MO-04 (R-Alford): Likely R → Solid R
MT-02 (R-Downing): Likely R → Solid R
NH-02 (D-Goodlander): Likely D → Lean D
NC-08 (R-Harris): Lean R → Likely R
OH-01 (D-Landsman): Lean D → Toss-Up
OH-09 (D-Kaptur): Lean D → Toss-Up
TN-07 (R-Van Epps): Lean R → Likely R
TX-09 (OPEN): Solid D → Lean R
TX-32 (OPEN): Solid D → Lean R
TX-34 (D-Gonzalez): Likely D → Lean D
TX-35 (OPEN): Solid D → Toss-Up

Now, you’re probably asking: why did so many seats in Texas shift towards the Democrats? That’s an excellent question! In order to make districts more favorable to their party, the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature split up several Solid D districts to be much more friendly to Republicans. However, all of those Democratic voters had to go somewhere. So as a trade-off to making those districts more Republican friendly, they split those Democratic voters into Solid R districts, making them less friendly.

This is largely the risk of partisan redistricting: you try to make as many districts as possible favorable to your party by splitting your opponent’s voters up, but you may actually lose more seats because of the softening of once-solid districts. North Carolina has, as of now, seemingly taken the largest risk this year - as of right now, not a single district in the state is Solid R post-redistricting, at least at this point.

Speaking of North Carolina, this week’s Closest Race remains NC-01, where incumbent Democrat Don Davis, whose district was made more Republican-friendly, currently has a 48.91% chance of winning his seat - a virtual coin-toss.

With all of the changes above, here’s where the House of Representatives stands: 222 Democratic seats, 195 Republican seats, and 18 Toss-Up seats. The chamber is still rated Likely D, with Democrats having an 81.91% chance of flipping control.

The only gubernatorial change this week is (once again) occurring in Iowa, reverting to the rating it had just two weeks ago:

Shifts Toward the Republicans
Iowa (OPEN): Lean R → Likely R

Everywhere else is holding steady.

That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!