Welcome to The Forecast! Tonight is Election Night 2025! The two major races we’re focused on tonight are those for New Jersey governor and Virginia governor. See the FINAL PREDICTIONS from CM Election Predictions below. For the latest updates for races in 2026, another newsletter will be coming tomorrow.

A tumultuous campaign season across New Jersey and Virginia come to an end TONIGHT! The two states up tonight are generally considered fairly Democratic at the presidential level, but both have had Republican governors in the last decade (including Virginia current Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin).

In New Jersey, Democratic US Representative Mikie Sherrill is attempting to succeed incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, while Republican Jack Ciattarelli hopes to flip the seat back to the Republicans after eight years of Democratic leadership. The race has increasingly tightened over the past several weeks, but the Model predicts that Democrat Mikie Sherrill has a 76.19% chance of winning the state. That leaves a decent chance for Mr. Ciattarelli to win, so the final rating for New Jersey is Lean D.

In Virginia, Democratic US Representative Abigail Spanberger is hoping to flip the Virginia governor’s office back for the Democrats - the seat is currently held by Republican Glenn Youngkin. The Republican candidate for governor, Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, is hoping to succeed her fellow Republican and keep the state in the Republican column. This race, unlike New Jersey, has widened over the last several weeks, with the Model predicting that Democrat Abigail Spanberger has an 81.54% chance of winning the state. That leaves a small, but not vanishingly small, chance for Lt. Governor Earle-Sears to claim victory, so the final rating for Virginia is Likely D.

I’ll be watching all counties in each state, but I’ll especially be looking at a few specific ones.

In New Jersey, I’ll be watching districts that slid towards Republicans from the 2021 gubernatorial election to the 2024 presidential election - I’d like to get a sense of whether those counties continue to slide, or if Democrats start making gains there. I’ll also be watching districts where the margins were within ~5% in one or both of those races. Those counties are: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, and Passaic.

In Virginia, I’m planning to follow a similar pattern. The counties and municipalities that fit those qualifications are: Buchanan, Chesapeake, Chesterfield, Dickenson, Hopewell, James City, Manassas Park, Montgomery, Northampton, Radford, Stafford, Staunton, Suffolk, Surry, Sussex, Virginia Beach and Winchester.

I’ll be posting my thoughts as results are coming in on the CM Election Predictions Bluesky account, which you can find here. Please follow the account for updates throughout the night! First polls close in Virginia at 7:00 PM Eastern time, and in New Jersey at 8:00 PM Eastern time.

That’s all it for this special Election Night newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next 2026 Forecast tomorrow!