Welcome to The Forecast! Sorry it’s been spotty the last few weeks - I’ve been working on upgrades to the website, including a plan to show live vote totals on Election Night, giving you a real election hub! Our first test will be in early March, as Texas holds statewide primaries. Stay tuned for more info on that!

This week, just ONE Senate seat is shifting:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
North Carolina (R-OPEN): Likely D → Solid D

Polling right now pretty heavily favors the likely Democratic nominee, former Governor Roy Cooper. This, along with shifts in the national atmosphere towards the Democrats, is continuing to shrink Republican odds of holding the US Senate - they now sit at just a 63.9% chance of holding the chamber, with a rating of Lean R.

The seat count still sits at 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and 1 Toss-Up. If this scenario played out, Republicans would still hold a Senate majority with the Vice President being Republican JD Vance. However, there are enough “Lean R” seats that Democrats still have a decent chance of flipping that this isn’t guaranteed.

What had appeared just a month ago, to me at least, to be a pretty stable situation in the US Senate, appears to be getting more volatile. In some races, like Texas, the choice by the Republicans for their nominee will be absolutely pivotal. Other races, the recruiting choices of the Senate Democrats (such as getting former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown to run again, or former Alaska Representative Mary Peltola to throw her hat in the ring) could make these races more competitive than they might otherwise have been. Democrats probably shouldn’t be counting their chickens before they’ve hatched, but there is reason for optimism.

Now, updates in the House of Representatives:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
CA-35 (D-Torres): Likely D → Solid D
FL-16 (R-OPEN): Likely R → Lean R
FL-23 (D-Moskowitz): Lean D → Likely D
GA-11 (R-OPEN): Solid R → Likely R
MA-09 (D-Keating): Likely D → Solid D
MN-01 (R-Finstad): Lean R → Toss-Up
MO-05 (D-Cleaver): Likely R → Lean R
NC-03 (R-Murphy): Lean R → Toss-Up
OR-04 (D-Hoyle): Likely D → Solid D
PA-14 (R-Reschenthaler): Solid R → Likely R
TN-05 (R-Ogles): Likely R → Lean R

After weeks of stable national polling, hovering right at around D+4, polls have started to edge higher for Democrats, sitting somewhere between D+5-6. Now, obviously, we’re still a little less than nine months from Election Day, but as of right now, the momentum is firmly in the Democratic corner. Unfortunately, most of these changes are being informed by this change in the national mood - there’s not much district-by-district polling readily available. That will likely not change until at least mid-summer.

With these changes, Democrats continue to see their majority odds tick up here, as well, now sitting at an 89.5% chance of flipping control of the chamber, a Likely D rating. However, redistricting isn’t quite done yet - Virginia, Maryland, Florida, and New York still have some work ahead of them. Not to mention that a major Supreme Court opinion will be handed down sometime this year that could set off another round, potentially opening up seats for Republicans in the South.

Regardless, if the election were held today, I would expect Democrats to snag 224 seats, Republicans would snag 191, and 20 seats would be up for grabs.

The most competitive seat this week is IA-02, currently represented by Republican Ashley Hinson. She is retiring at the end of the term to run for the open US Senate seat in Iowa. This district is situated in northeast Iowa, covering the cities of Cedar Falls, Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, Mason City, and Waterloo. The district includes a significant rural population, as well. Right now, Republicans have a 50.5% chance of holding the seat.

We have a few changes here:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Minnesota (D-OPEN): Likely D → Solid D
South Carolina (R-OPEN): Likely R → Lean R

Shifts Toward the Republicans
Arizona (D-Hobbs): Lean D → Toss-Up

Each state has different reasons for changing here. In Arizona, old polls that showed a lead for the incumbent Democrat have aged out of the Model, returning it to an estimate based on historical results. In Minnesota, new polling featuring likely Democratic nominee Sen. Amy Klobuchar showed a strong lead over potential Republican challengers. In South Carolina, the increasingly strong national environment for Democrats edged the odds just below the 80% threshold.

That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!