Welcome to The Forecast! This is the inaugural newsletter of CM Election Predictions. And boy, we’ve got some updates!

All is relatively quiet in the Senate at the moment. With over a year to go until the midterm elections, there’s too much unknown right now. However, if the election were held today, I would estimate it is likely that Republicans retain control with a 51-49 majority, which would reflect a net gain of two seats by the Democrats.

However, the 2026 map is NOT friendly territory for the Democrats - they are very much on defense in what SHOULD be a good year for them. Their toughest races to defend will likely be in Georgia (D-Ossoff) and Michigan (OPEN). Their most likely pick-ups exist in Maine (R-Collins), where the incumbent has not yet officially declared a re-election bid, and North Carolina (OPEN), where incumbent Thom Tillis announced his intention to retire, and popular former Democratic governor Roy Cooper announced his candidacy. Democrats also got a boost in Ohio (R-Husted), where former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown launched a bid to return to the Senate, though given his defeat in 2024, it still remains unlikely.

Republicans, however, should be feeling much more confident. Their major points of defense are the seats in Maine and North Carolina. Even if they lost both of those AND Ohio, they would still be sitting at 50 seats, enough to give them a majority with Vice President Vance (R) at the helm.

In the House of Representatives, the picture is RAPIDLY changing. Several states, following the lead of Texas, are now prepping plans to redistrict before the 2026 midterm elections. Texas, itself, just passed its final legislative hurdle to approve new congressional maps. That leads us to our first rating changes of the 2026 midterm cycle:

TX-09 (OPEN): Solid D → Likely R
TX-24 (D-Veasey, R-Van Duyne): Solid R → Likely R
TX-32 (OPEN): Solid D → Likely R
TX-34 (OPEN): Solid D → Toss-Up
TX-35 (OPEN): Solid D → Lean R
TX-38 (D-Fletcher): Solid R → Likely R

The seats marked “OPEN” were drawn in a way that they actually have no current member of congress residing in them. Seats with two candidates were drawn to that they have multiple members of congress residing in them. The heavily-Republican TX-38 was redrawn to now cover the home of Democrat Rep. Fletcher, who currently represents the strongly-Democratic TX-07. All-in-all, this is bad news for Democrats.

In response, a redistricting war appears to be brewing across the country. California, New York, Indiana, Missouri, and several other states are contemplating jumping in with their own new districts, Democrats seeking to neutralize the Texas redraw, Republicans seeking to counter those efforts and maintain their net gain. With a little over a year until the midterm elections, I expect a lot is going to change.

If the election were held today, I think it is likely Democrats would hit 218 seats. However, Republicans would not be far behind, currently sitting at 213 seats. Four seats would be up for grabs:

TX-34 (OPEN)
VA-02 (R-Kiggans)
WI-01 (R-Steil)
WI-03 (R-Van Orden)

We are getting VERY close to the 2025 elections for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. At this moment, it’s likely that Democrats will win both offices. In Virginia, this is a FLIP from the Republicans, which would be welcome news for Democrats. Here’s where I’m estimating the margins will fall:

New Jersey: D+10.55%
Virginia: D+7.83%

That’s all it for the first newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!