Welcome to The Forecast! We skipped last week - there were limited changes in ratings (which are covered below) and I was busy with updates to the website, but now you can enjoy those changes with clickable links below!

Very little has changed in the Senate. No ratings have shifted, but a few states have seen some new polling come in since the last Forecast. Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas have all seen polling come in recently. If you click those links, you can see on the trend charts how those polls have impacted those Senate races: in each case, Democratic odds increased (even though in some of the polling, they weren’t in the lead). This signals that, though at this point Democrats are trailing in some of these races, they are doing better than the historical average result in many cases.

With these changes, as well as some additional national polling, the odds for winning a majority in the Senate still favor the Republicans, who have a 77.53% chance of holding on to their majority. This means the chamber is rated Lean R. The makeup continues to stand at 49 Democrats, 50 Republicans, and 1 Toss-Up.

There’s been a little movement in the House, but with no primaries yet conducted and national polling being somewhat stabilized, many seats remain unchanged. However, here are the couple that HAVE moved:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
LA-06 (D-Fields): Likely D → Solid D
MT-02 (R-Downing): Solid R → Likely R
PA-08 (R-Bresnahan): Toss-Up → Lean D

Shifts Toward the Republicans
PA-10 (R-Perry): Lean D → Toss-Up

Overall, the House odds remain stable - Democrats have an 86.8% chance of flipping the majority in November, meaning the rating is currently Likely D. The expected seat share is still 224 Democrats, 194 Republicans, and 17 Toss-Up seats.

The most competitive race today remains NC-01, where Rep. Don Davis (D) is at a literal coin-flip - 50.0% odds of winning. A quick note here: individual district pages have been updated and will now show the most current district - so the district you see on that page is the newly-redistricted version.

Two changes here in gubernatorial races:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Alaska (OPEN): Solid R → Likely R
Iowa (OPEN): Likely R → Lean R

These changes reflect a persistent and stabilizing environment that is favorable to the Democrats - at least for now. Only Michigan and Texas have had any specific polling this month.

That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!