Welcome to The Forecast! This week again has very few updates to ratings - polling has been quiet over the holiday season. However, another update has been added to the website - on each State page, State Legislatures now show. This was a large undertaking, and I’m proud to introduce it!

Now, onto the Forecast.

The Senate has remained stable the last few weeks - Democrats remain at an estimated 49 seats, Republicans remain at an estimated 50 seats, with one Toss-Up seat. Odds favor Republicans, but they’ve slipped just a bit - they now have a 79.32% chance of holding the chamber, downgrading from Likely R → Lean R.

In the House of Representatives, only one seat sees a rating change this week:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
MT-02 (R-Downing): Solid R → Likely R

This seat is still pretty firmly in Republican hands, with odds slipping just below the 92% “Solid” threshold (now at 91.98%).

Overall odds for the majority in the House still are favoring Democrats, who now have an 83.8% chance of flipping the chamber. The estimated seat count remains 224 Democrats, 194 Republicans, and 17 Toss-Up seats.

The closest race this week remains NC-01, represented by Democrat Don Davis.

There are TWO changes this week in the gubernatorial Forecast:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Nevada (R-Lombardo): Lean D → Toss-Up

Shifts Toward the Republicans
Alaska (OPEN): Solid D → Solid R

The most dramatic change here is Alaska - the change is driven by a VERY strong Democratic poll dropping off due to age. The poll showed former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leading a potential Republican challenger in the race for governor by ~30%. With that poll gone, the state returns to favoring Republicans. Democrats last won the office of Governor of Alaska in 1998.

In Nevada, a shift towards the middle reflects a decently strong national environment for Democrats, and some tight hypothetical polling in the state. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is seeking re-election.

That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!