Welcome to The Forecast! It’s Election Night in the State of Illinois, and polls close in just a few minutes (at 8:00 PM Eastern). Follow along to results here. Other than that, dive into the Forecast below!

Since the last newsletter, there have been no shifts in the Senate. Republicans maintain the edge in battle for a majority, with a 71.5% chance of holding their majority, with 50 expected seats for them, 49 expected seats for Democrats, and 1 Toss-Up seat.

There WERE several shifts in the US House:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
CA-35 (D-Torres): Likely D → Solid D
CO-03 (R-Hurd): Lean R → Toss-Up
CO-07 (D-Pettersen): Likely D → Solid D
FL-21 (R-Mast): Likely R → Lean R
IA-03 (R-Nunn): Toss-Up → Lean D
NY-01 (R-Lalota): Lean R → Toss-Up
OK-05 (R-Bice): Likely R → Lean R
OR-02 (R-Bentz): Solid R → Likely R

All of these changes reflect the national environment shifting a little further into Democrats’ favor. With these changes, Democrats now sit at an 89.9% chance of flipping the US House, a rating of Likely D. They’re expected at 225 seats, while Republicans sit at 189 seats, with 21 seats considered Toss-Ups.

The closest seat this week is IA-02. Set in northeastern Iowa, the district covers the major cities in the district include Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, Mason City and Waterloo. The district is currently represented by Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson. She is not running for re-election in the seat, opting instead to run for the state’s open US Senate seat. Right now, Democrats have a 50.1% chance of flipping the seat. Right now, Republicans control the entire Iowa congressional delegation, so Democrats are hoping for an opportunity to flip at least one of the state’s districts.

There are two changes in the races for governor this week:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Ohio (R-OPEN): Likely R → Toss-Up
South Carolina (R-OPEN): Likely R → Lean R

South Carolina’s change is brought on purely by the change in the national environment. In Ohio, however, new polling has been released showing a very competitive race between the potential Democratic nominee and potential Republican nominee. This will definitely be a close race to watch.

That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!