Welcome to The Forecast! Let’s dig right in!

Still no major changes in the Senate! Now that Election 2025 is wrapped up, I expect we’ll start seeing polls for Senate races soon. Until then, we remain at 49 Democratic seats, 49 Republican seats, and 2 Toss-Ups. Republicans have a 71.83% chance of keeping control of the Senate, meaning it’s rated Likely R.

Things continue to shift in the House of Representatives! This week includes updated historical electoral data in Virginia, as well as new districts in Utah! Highlighted seats are districts that have moved into/out of Toss-Up status, and/or are expected seat flips.

UT-03 has two incumbents, both Republicans - this is because the new district encompasses both of their homes. UT-02 was previously the home of Republican Celeste Maloy, though this redrawn district is considered “OPEN” for the 2026 election.

All changes are below:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
AZ-06 (R-Ciscomani): Toss-Up → Lean D
FL-05 (R-Rutherford): Solid R → Likely R
PA-01 (R-Fitzpatrick): Toss-Up → Lean D
TX-05 (R-Gooden): Solid R → Likely R
TX-17 (R-Sessions): Solid R → Likely R
UT-01 (R-Moore): Solid R → Solid D

Shifts Toward the Republicans
UT-02 (OPEN): Likely R → Solid R
UT-03 (R-Maloy/Kennedy): Lean R → Solid R

With these changes, the House is in good shape for Democrats: 221 Democratic seats, 196 Republican seats, and 18 Toss-Up seats. Obviously, the redistricting arms race is still ongoing, but that’s where things stand today. With these shifts, Democrats now have an 80.15% chance of winning the majority in the House of Representatives, meaning the rating gets an upgrade to Likely D.

Only one change in the 2026 gubernatorial races, and it’s a bit of a surprise:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Oklahoma (OPEN): Likely R → Lean R

This is likely due to the fact that there is limited statewide polling in Oklahoma. Similarly to the Senate, now that the 2025 elections are complete, I expect polls will start rolling in for these races relatively soon, as well.

That’s all for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!