Welcome to The Forecast! Major updates today as a panel of judges in Texas order the use of the Congressional map passed in 2021 - the State of Texas is appealing to the US Supreme Court.

Polls have started to come in for US Senate races, but so far, there have been few changes to the Model’s predictions. The only change since last week is listed below:

Shifts Toward the Republicans
Maine (R-Collins): Solid D → Lean D

Overall, Republicans remain the heavy favorites to maintain a US Senate majority. They have an 81.47% chance of keeping control, meaning the majority after the 2026 elections at this moment is Likely R.

As I mentioned in the introduction, a panel of federal judges in Texas has struck down the recently-passed Congressional maps in Texas. The state is appealing to the US Supreme Court, but in the meantime, I’ve reverted the Texas districts back to the lines that were passed in 2021. This, along with additional polling, caused the changes below:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
TX-03 (R-Self): Solid R → Likely R
TX-09 (D-Green): Lean R → Solid D
TX-12 (R-Goldman): Solid R → Likely R
TX-22 (R-Nehls): Solid R → Likely R
TX-24 (R-Van Duyne): Likely R → Lean R
TX-26 (R-Gill): Solid R → Likely R
TX-31 (R-Carter): Solid R → Likely R
TX-32 (D-Johnson): Likely R → Solid D
TX-34 (D-Gonzalez): Lean D → Likely D
TX-35 (D-Casar): Toss-Up → Solid D
TX-38 (OPEN): Solid R → Likely R

Shifts Toward the Republicans
TX-05 (R-Gooden): Likely R → Solid R
TX-17 (R-Sessions): Likely R → Solid R
TX-28 (D-Cuellar): Likely D → Lean D

With these changes, the Model puts Democrats at 224 seats, Republicans at 194 seats, and 17 seats are rated as Toss-Ups. The Model expects there is an 83.64% chance that Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives in 2026. Challenges are up in court for nearly all states that have redistricted already, and several states have noted their interest in redistricting in the coming weeks and months. This saga is far from over!

Also, I forgot to mention, the closest race last week (and this week) is IA-03 (R-Nunn). This race has remained one of the closest for several weeks.

Similarly to the US Senate, we’ve started getting more polling results for gubernatorial elections next year. There’s only been one change since last week, which you can see below:

Shifts Toward the Republicans
Michigan (OPEN): Likely D → Lean D

That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!