Welcome to The Forecast!

Continued confusion this week regarding redistricting. Texas’ new maps have been re-instated - at least temporarily while the Supreme Court weighs a final decision.

This week, I’ve been focusing HEAVILY on building an updated website. I haven’t gone and changed the Texas districts back due to this. It’s still a work in progress, but keep an eye out - you’ll be noticing some major improvements!

Some very limited statewide polling this past week, but still two changes of note:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Colorado (D-Hickenlooper): Likely D → Solid D
North Carolina (OPEN): Lean D → Likely D

Overall, the Senate still sits at 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Toss-Ups, with Republicans having a 79.16% chance at holding the majority, meaning the rating is Lean R.

As I said, I haven’t updated the Texas districts back to the new map yet. I think I’m going to ride this out and wait for the Supreme Court to offer final guidance. Apart from that, continued polling has given us the updates below:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
AR-02 (R-Hill): Likely R → Lean R
CA-05 (R-McClintock): Solid R → Likely R
CA-23 (R-Obernolte): Solid R → Likely R
CA-40 (R-Kim): Likely R → Lean R
FL-08 (R-Haridopolos): Solid R → Likely R
FL-17 (R-Steube): Solid R → Likely R
ID-02 (R-Simpson): Solid R → Likely R
IL-11 (D-Foster): Likely D → Solid D
MI-03 (D-Scholten): Lean D → Likely D
MO-04 (R-Alford): Solid R → Likely R
MT-02 (R-Downing): Solid R → Likely R
NY-01 (R-LaLota): Lean R → Toss-Up
NY-24 (R-Tenney): Solid R → Likely R
NC-08 (R-Harris): Likely R → Lean R
OH-01 (D-Landsman): Toss-Up → Lean D
OH-05 (R-Latta): Solid R → Likely R
OH-14 (R-Joyce): Solid R → Likely R
PA-06 (D-Houlahan): Likely D → Solid D
TX-02 (R-Crenshaw): Solid R → Likely R
VA-02 (R-Kiggans): Toss-Up → Lean D
VA-06 (R-Cline): Solid R → Likely R
WI-06 (R-Grothman): Likely R → Lean R

Shifts Toward the Republicans
CA-27 (D-Whitesides): Solid D → Likely D
CA-35 (D-Torres): Solid D → Likely D

This marks the Democrats’ strongest position yet. With these changes, Democrats are at 226 seats, Republicans are at 193, with 16 Toss-Up seats. The odds of Democrats winning the House majority now sit at 85.67%, with the rating steady at Likely D.

The closest seat this week is NC-01. This district was recently redistricting by the North Carolina Legislature with the intent of flipping the seat away from incumbent Democratic Representative Don Davis. Situated in northeastern North Carolina, it is fairly rural, though it includes some exurbs of the Research Triangle, the urbanized center of central North Carolina.

As of today, Representative Davis has a 49.89% chance of holding the seat - making this race a virtual Toss-Up.

No changes in Gubernatorial predictions this week!

That’s it for this newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!