Welcome to The Forecast! I almost forgot! Here’s the latest updates - including the ratings for the 2026 gubernatorial elections!

No ratings shifts have occurred in the US Senate Model. Democrats and Republicans remain at 49 seats each, with Montana (lacking any polling) and Ohio both rated as Toss-Up. The Senate remains Likely R.

In the House of Representatives, quite a few changes - now including the new California and Ohio congressional districts passed recently. Highlighted below are seats that shifted in/out of Toss-Up status OR are seats that are now expected to flip. Here’s what changed:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
CA-01 (R-LaMalfa): Solid R → Likely D
CA-03 (R-Kiley): Toss-Up → Likely D
CA-09 (D-Harder): Lean D → Solid D
CA-13 (D-Merced): Lean D → Likely D
CA-26 (D-Brownley): Likely D → Solid D
CA-27 (D-Whitesides): Lean D → Solid D
CA-41 (R-Calvert): Toss-Up → Solid D
CA-45 (D-Tran): Lean D → Likely D
CA-48 (R-Issa): Likely R → Lean D
GA-07 (R-McCormick): Solid R → Likely R
NY-18 (D-Ryan): Lean D → Likely D
OH-08 (R-Davidson): Solid R → Likely R
TX-21 (R-Roy): Solid R → Likely R

Shifts Toward the Republicans
CA-05 (R-McClintock): Likely R → Solid R
CA-06 (D-Bera): Solid D → Likely D
CA-23 (R-Obernolte): Likely R → Solid R
CA-40 (R-Kim): Toss-Up → Likely R
OH-01 (D-Landsman): Likely D → Toss-Up
OH-09 (D-Kaptur): Toss-Up → Lean R
OH-14 (R-Joyce): Likely R → Solid R

With these changes, Democrats are looking like they have a 78% chance of taking the majority, meaning the House of Representatives is Lean D. Right now, they are expected to win 218 seats (a majority), while Republicans are expected to win 197, with 20 seats considered Toss-Ups. Several states are still expected to redistricting, so these number remain subject to change.

This week, the most competitive US House race is now expected to once again be IA-03 (R-Nunn). Democrats are expected to have a 50.84% chance of winning the seat as of today.

As predicted, Democrats won the gubernatorial elections of both New Jersey and Virginia last night. With those races complete, we turn our eyes to 2026 - when 36 states will elect their governors! Below are the first ratings for next year’s elections. Please note that some states may show strange results due to limited polling (I mostly am putting this here due to Alaska’s rating - there’s a single poll available and it shows the Democrat Mary Peltola, who has not confirmed she will be running, with a wide lead). I’ve highlighted states that are rated Toss-Up or are expected to flip.

Alabama (OPEN): Solid R
Alaska (OPEN): Solid D
Arizona (D-Hobbs): Lean D
Arkansas (R-Huckabee Sanders): Solid R
California (OPEN): Solid D
Colorado (OPEN): Solid D
Connecticut (D-Lamont): Likely D
Florida (OPEN): Likely R
Georgia (OPEN): Toss-Up
Hawai’i (D-Green): Solid D
Idaho (R-Little): Solid R
Illinois (D-Pritzker): Solid D
Iowa (OPEN): Likely R
Kansas (OPEN): Lean D
Maine (OPEN): Likely D
Maryland (D-Moore): Solid D
Massachusetts (D-Healey): Likely D
Michigan (OPEN): Likely D
Minnesota (D-Walz): Likely D
Nebraska (R-Pillen): Solid R
Nevada (R-Lombardo): Lean R
New Hampshire (R-Ayotte): Lean R
New Mexico (OPEN): Likely D
New York (D-Hochul): Solid D
Ohio (OPEN): Lean R
Oklahoma (OPEN): Likely R
Oregon (D-Kotek): Likely D
Pennsylvania (D-Shapiro): Solid D
Rhode Island (D-McKee): Solid D
South Carolina (OPEN): Likely R
South Dakota (R-Rhoden): Solid R
Tennessee (OPEN): Solid R
Texas (R-Abbott): Likely R
Vermont (R-Scott): Solid R
Wisconsin (OPEN): Lean D
Wyoming (OPEN): Solid R

As more polls start to come in with Election 2025 behind us, these will almost certainly change, so this will be interesting to watch!

That’s all for the newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!