It’s that time of week again! Welcome to The Forecast.

A minor update to the Model this week, upgrading to version 3.3. This upgrade involved a slight tweak to how polling degrades over time when being factored into the predicted result. Historical testing showed a slight improvement to the confidence interval and accuracy when this change was applied.

Only one shift to report this week, and it shines a light on a race Democrats would REALLY like to win:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Ohio (R-Husted): Lean R → Toss-Up

Some favorable polling data came out for Democrats in the 2026 special Senate election to fill Vice President Vance’s seat in Ohio. Jon Husted, formerly the Lieutenant Governor of Ohio, was appointed to fill the seat when Vance vacated. He has declared his bid to win the election for the rest of the term. For the Democrats, several candidates have jumped into the race, but the most high-profile is former Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his bid for re-election in 2024. Democrats are hoping that voters in Ohio have some buyers’ remorse with the Trump administration, and may be willing to put their old Democratic senator back in charge. Republicans, on the other hand, are hoping to strengthen their grip on the state. In 2024, then-Senator Brown lost his re-election bid by ~3.5% (in contract, Vice President Harris lost the state by ~11.2%). Right now, the Model predicts Democrats have ~43% chance of winning this election, so this will likely be a race to watch!

More recent historical election data has come in, specifically for Florida, Illinois, and Mississippi, driving some of the rating changes you’ll see below:

Shifts Toward the Republicans
CA-03 (R-Kiley): Toss-Up → Lean R
CA-27 (D-Whitesides): Likely D → Lean D
FL-03 (R-Kammack): Likely R → Solid R
FL-14 (D-Castor): Solid D → Likely D
FL-22 (D-Frankel): Solid D → Likely D
FL-23 (D-Moskowitz): Likely D → Lean D
FL-25 (D-Wasserman Schultz): Solid D → Likely D
FL-27 (R-Salazar): Toss-Up → Lean R
FL-28 (R-Gimenez): Lean R → Solid R
IL-08 (D-Krishnamoorthi): Solid D → Likely D
MO-03 (R-Onder): Likely R → Solid R
NC-10 (R-Harrigan): Lean R → Likely R
PA-08 (R-Bresnahan): Lean D → Toss-Up

You’ll notice that several seats will show up from week-to-week. Specifically, NC-10 has shown up SEVERAL times the past few weeks. That seat is hovering right around the 80% confidence interval that the Model feels comfortable calling something “Likely”. This is very likely to happen and can give you an idea of how a race might be trending - in this case, a strong Republican position, but some weakness if the polls swing toward the Democrats.

With all of these changes, Republicans don’t quite have anything to cheer for just yet - Democrats are predicted to hit 218 seats, Republicans at 200, with 17 Toss-Up seats. If this holds true, 218 seats is a majority, and Democrats would hit that without winning a single Toss-Up. However, compared to the last month and a half or so, this does show a narrow tightening, and as redistricting continues to rage across the country, these could tighten even further.

Right now, the Model says the most competitive race is IA-03 (R-Nunn). The district encompasses much of southwest Iowa, and includes Polk County (Des Moines) and some of the western suburbs. Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn flipped the seat in 2022, defeating incumbent Democrat Cindy Axne by ~0.7%. He won re-election in 2024 with a margin of ~3.9% over Democrat Lanon Baccam, trailing Donald Trump’s presidential victory of ~4.4% in the district. Representative Nunn has announced his intention to run for re-election in 2026. Several Democrats have announced their bids for the seat, most prominently State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott, who represents the western Des Moines suburbs, and State Representative Jennifer Konfrst, who represents part of the city of Des Moines and served several years as Minority Leader. Lanon Baccam, who ran for the seat in 2024, has filed paperwork to run, but hasn’t made an official announcement.

Last but not least, the gubernatorial elections for New Jersey and Virginia are set to take place TWO WEEKS from today. Last week, I decided NOT to include forecasted margins for the races. I’m going back and forth between whether or not I want to do this, so I might change my mind, but for THIS newsletter, here are the odds of victory for Democrats in both of these races, which are currently rated Lean D:

New Jersey: 77.80%
Virginia: 77.50%

These are healthy odds, but still leave room for a Republican upset in both races. It’ll be something to keep an eye on, and will certainly give an idea to how Americans are feeling this far into President Trump’s second term.

That’s all it for the newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!