Welcome to The Forecast! This week sees the introduction of another major update to the Model - 4.0. This update improves how the Model measures confidence that a party will hold control of a majority. This is largely important for the Model predicted who will in the majority in the House, Senate, and (eventually) Electoral College - there is not an impact to gubernatorial elections. This required a thorough review and cleaning of historical tests, back to 2016 (and for the House, back to 2014).

Prior to this update, the Model predicted Democrats had a more than 99% chance of taking control of the House of Representatives - a confidence level that is FAR too aggressive. By comparing how historical Models did on the whole in projecting the number of seats each party would get, and comparing that number to real results, the confidence level has been adjusted to more accurately reflect each party’s odds of taking a majority of the institutions I mentioned earlier. Democrats’ odds of taking the House now sit at 73.89%, putting the odds of a majority at Lean D.

Now, onto the Forecast!

In the Senate, there are no changes from the previous newsletter. Republicans currently hold an 83.81% chance of keeping control of the Senate, meaning the Forecast for the majority is Likely R.

With the changes made to how the Model measures confidence, and some additional polling, there were swings across the board. I’ve also included data for the newly-completed North Carolina and Utah redistricting (though Utah remains subject to change). Because there are so many changes, I highlighted the races that moved into (or out of) Toss-Up territory. Take a look below:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
AZ-05 (R-OPEN): Likely R → Lean R
CA-03 (R-Kiley): Lean R → Toss-Up
CO-04 (R-Boebert): Solid R → Likely R
CO-05 (R-Crank): Likely R → Lean R
FL-03 (R-Cammack): Solid R → Likely R
FL-28 (R-Gimenez): Solid R → Likely R
GA-01 (R-OPEN): Likely R → Lean R
GA-10 (R-OPEN): Solid R → Likely R
GA-12 (R-Allen): Likely R → Lean R
IL-16 (R-LaHood): Solid R → Likely R
KS-02 (R-Schmidt): Likely R → Lean R
MD-01 (R-Harris): Solid R → Likely R
MI-05 (R-Walberg): Solid R → Likely R
MO-03 (R-Onder): Solid R → Likely R
NE-01 (R-Flood): Likely R → Lean R
NY-11 (R-Malliotakis): Likely R → Lean R
NY-23 (R-Langworthy): Solid R → Likely R
NC-03 (R-Murphy): Likely R → Lean R
NC-10 (R-Harrigan): Likely R → Lean R
NC-11 (R-Edwards): Lean R → Toss-Up
OK-01 (R-Hern): Solid R → Likely R
SC-04 (R-Timmons): Solid R → Likely R
SC-07 (R-Fry): Solid R → Likely R
TX-09 (NEW-OPEN): Likely R → Lean R
TX-10 (R-OPEN): Solid R → Likely R
UT-02 (R-Maloy): Solid R → Likely R
UT-03 (R-Kennedy): Solid R → Lean R
VA-01 (R-Wittman): Lean R → Toss-Up
WA-04 (R-Newhouse): Solid R → Likely R
WI-05 (R-Fitzgerald): Solid R → Likely R
WI-08 (R-Wied): Likely R → Lean R

Shifts Toward the Republicans
AZ-06 (R-Ciscomani): Lean D → Toss-Up
CA-26 (D-Brownley): Solid D → Likely D
IL-11 (D-Foster): Solid D → Likely D
LA-06 (D-Fields): Solid D → Likely D
MI-03 (D-Scholten): Likely D → Lean D
NY-18 (D-Ryan): Likely D → Lean D
NC-01 (D-Davis): Lean D → Toss-Up
OH-01 (D-Landsman): Likely D → Lean D
OR-04 (D-Hoyle): Solid D → Likely D
PA-01 (R-Fitzpatrick): Lean D → Toss-Up
PA-06 (D-Houlahan): Solid D → Likely D
VA-10 (D-Subramanyam): Solid D → Likely D

A lot of the shifts from “Solid” territory reflect the additional data that defines confidence. Anything in the “Likely” category has a more than 80% chance of winning the seat. “Lean” seats are more competitive, but Toss-Up is where the big competitions are expected to occur.

With these changes, Democrats are expected to win 215 seats, Republicans 197 seats, and 23 seats are Toss-Ups.

The most competitive seat is now once again NJ-07 (R-Kean), with Democrats holding a 50.38% chance of flipping the seat.

Election Day is NEXT TUESDAY in New Jersey and Virginia, so the next Forecast that gets sent will include final predictions. Here are the odds in each of those races as of right now:

New Jersey: Lean D, 76.45% chance
Virginia: Lean D, 79.14% chance

One thing to note one week out: the Republican in the New Jersey race, Jack Ciattarelli, has been seeing some momentum - Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s odds of winning have slipped slightly over the last week, though the race remains Lean D. Next week I’ll be sending a list of the counties I’ll be watching in both states to get an early glimpse at what’s happening.

That’s all for now! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!