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Welcome to The Forecast! We are now just FOUR WEEKS AWAY from Election Day on Tuesday, November 4! The biggest races will be in New Jersey and Virginia, but many cities and towns across the country will also be electing local officials. You can check your voter registration or register to vote here. Please check with your local or state Board of Elections to see what might be on your ballot this year!
Now let’s get started with the Forecast!
Just one seat has changed ratings since the last Forecast, and that is in the state of Florida.
Shifts Toward the Republicans
Florida (R-Moody): Lean R → Likely R
Everything else holds steady, with the Senate ranked as Likely R.
Thanks to updates (with 2024 precinct-level election data in several states being added on DRA2020), I was able to provide more accurate historical data for the Model to digest. Specifically, IN and UT got those updates. That, along with continued polling, has given the following shifts:
Shifts Toward the Democrats
TN-07 (OPEN): Likely R → Lean R
Shifts Toward the Republicans
IN-01 (D-Mrvan): Solid D → Lean D
MI-08 (D-McDonald Rivet): Likely D → Lean D
MO-02 (R-Wagner): Lean R → Likely R
NY-17 (R-Lawler): Likely D → Lean D
NC-05 (R-Foxx): Lean R → Likely R
NC-06 (R-McDowell): Lean R → Likely R
NC-11 (R-Edwards): Toss-Up → Lean R
SC-02 (R-Wilson): Lean R → Likely R
SC-05 (R-Norman): Likely R → Solid R
VA-02 (R-Kiggans): Lean D → Toss-Up
Congressional polling remains volatile at the moment, ranging from R+1 to D+8 over the past few weeks. This keeps the Model on its toes!
A few interesting things to note:
that Tennessee seat is currently marked “OPEN” - the incumbent Republican vacated earlier this year. A special election is being held in December, and whomever wins the seat may (likely) choose to run again in 2026. If a Republican wins in December, that will make this particular seat much easier to defend next year. However, if a Democrat wins, they have an opportunity to be very competitive. Democrats have largely outperformed 2024 results in special elections this year, sometimes in the double-digits. The incumbent Republican won this seat by R+21 in 2024. That is a LARGE mountain for Democrats to climb. I think Democrats are going to likely be more interested to see exactly how much they can outperform 2024 here.
Utah’s congressional maps are nearly complete - the Utah Legislature passed new maps yesterday, but before they can take effect, the court that ordered them to redraw has to approve it. The maps passed by the legislature create two districts that are quite a bit more competitive than they are today, though still with a Republican tilt. I won’t be changing the historical data used by the Model until the court determines whether or not the Legislature did their work properly. If the judge rules against the Legislature, she will choose a new map in short order - the last possible day for her to select that new map (or approve the current one) is November 10.
Overall, the House is still rated Solid D, with Democrats expected to get 219 seats, Republicans at 198 seats, and 18 seats are competitive. As of today, the most competitive race is in NJ-07 (R-Kean). Democrats have a 50.60% chance of winning that seat, meaning it is essentially a coin flip at this point.
I’m going to try to include the most competitive district each week! On Election Day in 2026, I’ll send out a Forecast with the most competitive races to watch so you can get a feel for how the night is going as results are coming in.
Just four weeks away from Election Day in New Jersey in Virginia, the ratings haven’t changed! NJ remains Lean D, VA remains Likely D. Below are the current expected margins:
New Jersey: D+6.90%
Virginia: D+7.64%
That’s it for the newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!