Welcome to The Forecast! This week mostly has updates for US House races.

There have been no changes since the Forecast on 08/25/2025. The Senate rating remains Solid R.

The landscape for the House of Representatives continues to change. The top line news here is that the House Model has downgraded Democrats’ odds of flipping the House of Representatives, moving from Likely D → Lean D.

Below are the rating changes since the last Forecast:

Shifts towards Republicans
CA-13: Lean D → Toss-Up
CA-22: Lean D → Toss-Up
MD-02: Solid D → Likely D
PA-06: Solid D → Likely D
PA-07: Lean D → Toss-Up
TX-09: Lean R → Likely R

Shifts towards Democrats
CA-48: Solid R → Likely R

Changes in Maryland and California are driven largely by the addition of more recent historical data - mainly the inclusion of 2024 election results in those states. Data is aggregated at Dave’s Redistricting, an excellent tool that provides lots of information about congressional districts (and lets you draw your own)! They are continuing to pool precinct-level data for 2024, so some states are still lagging a bit.

In Texas, the changes are largely driven by the finalization of the new congressional maps signed by Governor Greg Abbott (R). Compared to the original map passed by the Texas Senate, district 9 is slightly more Republican.

In Pennsylvania, these are just organic shifts to the Republicans. Polling has not been like it was in 2018 - Democrats were holding a much wider lead in the generic ballot poll back then, and Donald Trump was much more unpopular.

At least at this point, this is NOT looking like a “blue wave” environment, and Republicans remain highly competitive. As other states begin to jump into the redistricting battle, the landscape will continue to change.

No significant changes here. Both races remain at Lean D. Here’s where the Model estimates the margins will fall:

New Jersey: D+4.47%
Virginia: D+2.50%

That’s all it for the newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!