Welcome to The Forecast - Belated Edition!

Since the last newsletter, there has been a SINGLE change: Florida (R-Moody) has shifted from Likely R → Lean R. This is a positive sign for Democrats in a state that has lurched towards Republicans over the last decade. However, the odds of a win remain quite low, with the Model predicting Democrats have about a 20.20% chance of flipping the seat.

In the House of Representatives, there have been a few shifts - some driven by polling changes, others are driven by ongoing redistricting changes (this specifically impacts Missouri).

Shifts Toward the Democrats
KS-04 (R-Estes): Solid R → Likely R
MI-08 (D-McDonald Rivet): Lean D → Likely D
NY-17 (R-Lawler): Lean D → Likely D

Shifts Toward the Republicans
MO-02 (R-Wagner): Lean R → Likely R
MO-05 (D-Cleaver): Solid D → Lean R

The Model still largely sees House as Solid D at this point - Democrats sit at 219 seats to the Republicans’ 198 seats, with 18 seats being seen as highly competitive. With a number of states still talking about redistricting before the 2026 election, however, these numbers will likely change.

Less than two months from the 2025 elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats remain the favorites in the two gubernatorial elections, with both races sitting at Lean D.

Below are the margins the Model is predicting:

New Jersey: D+6.62%
Virginia: D+4.66%

Polling has been somewhat slow the past two weeks I’ve been gone, so there haven’t been many changes - but things can change very rapidly, so keep checking in! Thanks for reading!