Welcome to The Forecast! Here’s what’s changed since the last newsletter.

A solid national poll came in for Democrats, and this helped nudge a new state into Toss-Up territory - Ohio (R-Husted). With limited polling available for this race, the Model anticipates Democrats have ~42% chance of winning the seat. Not GREAT odds, but enough that the Model isn’t confident Republicans have the seat on-lock. This was the only seat shift since the previous newsletter - Senate control now stands at Lean R.

I expect that, once polling starts coming in for Montana, the current “Toss-Up” rating will change, and Republicans will be seen as clear favorites for keeping the seat. With that being said, that will likely bolster Republican odds of holding the Senate.

Some additional 2024 electoral data for Congressional districts have come in, specifically in Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri and North Carolina. That, along with the solid poll coming in for Democrats, and the redistricting effort being completed in Missouri, there are some shifts:

Shifts Toward Democrats:
IN-02 (R-Yakym): Solid R → Likely R
MO-02 (R-Wagner): Likely R → Lean R
MO-03 (R-Onder): Solid R → Likely R
NH-02 (D-Goodlander): Lean D → Likely D
NC-05 (R-Foxx): Likely R → Lean R
NC-06 (R-McDowell): Likely R → Lean R
NC-10 (R-Harrigan): Likely R → Lean R
NC-11 (R-Edwards): Lean R → Toss-Up
NC-13 (R-Knott): Likely R → Lean R
NC-14 (R-Moore): Likely R → Lean R
SC-02 (R-Wilson): Likely R → Lean R
SC-05 (R-Norman): Solid R → Likely R
VA-02 (R-Kiggans): Toss-Up → Lean D
WA-08 (D-Schrier): Lean D → Likely D
WI-07 (R-Tiffany): Solid R → Likely R

Shifts Toward Republicans:
MO-05 (D-Cleaver): Lean R → Likely R

The Model currently ranks the House of Representatives as Solid D, expecting 220 Democratic seats, 197 Republican seats, and 18 seats that are competitive.

If I force the Model to pick and choose, meaning if it is even 0.01% more confident one party will win over the other, it picks that party as the victor, the House looks like this: 224 Democrats, 211 Republicans. At this point, Republicans are winning the majority of those Toss-Up seats.

The Model sees the closest seat as Pennsylvania’s 10th District, currently held by Republican Scott Perry. Democrats have a 49.98% chance of winning this seat, while the incumbent Republican sees a 50.02% chance - basically a coin flip.

More states are set to redistrict over the coming weeks and months, so the math will change - keep checking in!

The gubernatorial Model remains consistent: both New Jersey and Virginia are Lean D this November. Below are the Model’s predicted margins:

New Jersey: D+6.90%
Virginia: D+4.94%

That’s all for the newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!