Welcome to The Forecast! This week saw the upgrade of The Model to Version 3.2. This version fixes a formula that related to how state- and district-specific polls impacted the forecast for specific races.

The Senate forecast updates largely have to do with the upgrade more accurately representing anticipated results. Two states shifted, and the overall Senate control projection shifted from Lean R → Likely R. Here are the states that changed:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
North Carolina (OPEN): Toss-Up → Lean D

Shifts Toward the Republicans
Michigan (OPEN): Solid D → Lean D

Because of limited district-level polling for the House of Representatives, changes here largely reflect changes in national polling, not from the Model update. Only three seats have shifted:

Shifts Toward the Republicans
IN-02 (R-Yakym): Likely R → Solid R
NC-10 (R-Harrigan): Lean R → Likely R
WA-08 (D-Schrier): Likely D → Lean D

The overall ranking remains Solid D, with Democrats at 220 seats, Republicans at 197 seats, and 18 competitive seats.

The gubernatorial races did see some shifts from the Model upgrade, largely reflected in the margins instead of the ranking, though we do have one shift:

Shifts Toward the Democrats
Virginia (OPEN): Lean D → Likely D

Below are the expected margins:

New Jersey: D+7.04%
Virginia: D+7.34%

That’s all it for the newsletter! Check out the website for more detailed information, and keep an eye out for the next Forecast!